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Nicolas Darvas Box Trading Secrets

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Wednesday, March 5, 2008

JPM Coverage of Singapore stocks

I just went through my files and compiled a
list of stocks that JPM is covering/has covered,
and below is the list:

  1. A-Reits
  2. Allco Commercial Reits
  3. Allgreen
  4. Ascendas India Trust
  5. Ascott Residence Trust
  6. Ausgroup
  7. Cambridge Ind Trust
  8. Capitaland
  9. Capital Retail China
  10. CapitaCommercial Trust
  11. Capital Mall Trust
  12. CDL Hospitality Trust
  13. Chartered Semicon
  14. Chemoil
  15. China Milk
  16. China XLX
  17. City Development
  18. Cityspring
  19. Comfort Delgro
  20. Cosco
  21. Dairy Farm
  22. Datacraft
  23. DBS
  24. Ezra
  25. Ferrochina
  26. Financial One
  27. First Ship Lease
  28. Fortune Real Estate Trust
  29. Fraser Centrpoint Trust
  30. Gems TV
  31. Genting
  32. Goodpack
  33. Guocoland
  34. HL Asia
  35. Hongguo
  36. HK Land
  37. Hyflux
  38. Hyflux Water Trust
  39. Jardine Matherson
  40. Jardine Strategic
  41. Jaya Holding
  42. Jurong Tech
  43. K-Reit Asia
  44. Keppel Corp
  45. Keppel Land
  46. LMA
  47. MacarthurCook Ind Trust
  48. Macquarie Int Inf Fund
  49. Macquarie MEAG Prime Reit
  50. Mapletree Logistic Trust
  51. Mobile One
  52. NOL
  53. OCBC
  54. Olam
  55. Parkway Holding
  56. Petra Food
  57. Raffles Medical
  58. Sembcorp
  59. SembMarine
  60. SIA Engineering
  61. SGX
  62. SingLand
  63. SPH
  64. Singtel
  65. SingPost
  66. SMRT
  67. ST Engineering
  68. StarHub
  69. Suntec Reit
  70. Synear
  71. Tat Hong
  72. Thai Bev
  73. Unisteel
  74. UOB
  75. Venture
  76. Wheelock Prop
  77. Wingtai
  78. Yanlord
  79. Yellow Pages

What's the use of knowing what stock has JPM covered?

Basiacally JPM covered mostly Singapore Blue Chips, and Mid-Caps, therefore there is a high chance that it might be initial covering other potentials, like YangZiJiang, China Fish, China Sports....

Many may be wondering what is JMP's rating on their stocks, so I am willing to give their rating and Target Price to the blog supporter, but I can't be giving all stocks' rating.

I am thinking of each person can request for 5 stocks, and I will email the rating and TP on the stock, how about it?

Give me your comment, and I will decide soon.....

Singapore Reits 03 Mar - ML

Singapore Reits Research Report by ML

http://www.uploading.com/en/files/QMNBHMQ2/Singapore%20Reits%20-%20ML.pdf.html

Monday, March 3, 2008

5 Research Reports on Capitaland

I have zip up 5 foreign research report on Capitaland
into one. They are from UBS, Nomura, Lehman Brothers,
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

http://www.uploading.com/en/files/OLHTS7AK/Capitaland 5 Reports.zip.html

STI Hitting 9000 in 2012??!!

The principle behind technical analyst David Bensimon's accurate forecastslies in the symmetries in markets, reports GENEVIEVE CUA - BT

MAKING forecasts is a tricky business, as many analysts and fund managers will tell you, but it does not faze technical analyst David Bensimon. Some of his calls on the markets have been so precise that on one of hisspeaking engagements, it spurred an impromptu bidding war among some in the audience for an on-the-spot copy of his award winning tome on markets, Polar Perspectives.

Mr Bensimon: Asia is in for a prosperity-driven inflationary era

One of the bidders paid for his copy with a gold coin. Worth about US$700then in November, it was about equal to the price of the book. But the coinhas since appreciated, as Mr Bensimon notes with amusement.
The book last year won a gold medal as the 'best book in finance/investment/economics' at New York's annual independent publishers awards.

Mr Bensimon's fundamental view is that most of the world - Asia inparticular - is in for a 'prosperity-driven inflationary era' over the nextfew years, notwithstanding the jitters over the credit crisis. Hislong-term view, for instance, is that the Straits Times Index (STI) willhit 9,000 and the Hang Seng Index 100,000 by 2012; and gold will climb toUS$2,600 an ounce by 2014.

He has set up a fund to invest according to the themes of his book. One ofhis first investors is Stephen Riady of the Lippo Group.
His forecasts may sound quite incredible, until you learn of his near-termcalls on markets which have turned out uncannily right. Last October, forinstance, he told an audience in Singapore that the STI would fall 15 percent from its level of 3,900 then to 3,300 shortly. The index fell from3,906 to 3,306 within six weeks of his call. In The Business Times inAugust, Executive Money quoted him as saying that the STI would fall to2,800; the index was then at 3,300. It fell to a low of 2,866 in January.

The principle behind Mr Bensimon's calls lies in the proportionalities andsymmetries in markets, which he sees as functions of 'phi', also called the'golden mean'. This is expressed in the number 1.618 and its inverse 0.618.As he sees it, these symmetries permeate markets, and this is evident inthe scale of market rises and even in the pattern of retracements acrosstime. His calls have gained a following among banks, traders, hedge fundsand private individuals.

The outcome of a forecast, he says, is not cast in stone but is based onprobabilities. 'The power comes not from saying that markets will do thisor that. It comes from recognising that different alternatives can unfold,'he says. 'The benefit is not to say the market might go up or down, that'snot of value to anyone. The value comes from being able to say that if themarket chooses this northward path, it will go this far and no more. If ittakes the southward path, it will go this far to a target.

'My speciality is to provide clients with a magnitude of duration and time,of price and specific levels and dates . . . March does provide a broadturning point that crosses different markets, not just the STI or equitiesbut across a spectrum.'

He believes the STI, currently trading at the 3,077 level, could still faceyet another downdraft. It needs to exceed 3,300, he says, to confirm thatit is out of the woods. Until then, there is a 'distinct risk' that itcould fall another 15 per cent to 2550, which will be a buying opportunity.'In Singapore if we break the 2,850 level, the next level down is 2,550which seems a little far and rather cheap. But these motions are driven bypanic and over-extension on the downside. But I'd be happy to investanywhere from 2,800 to 2,600 because at those levels, it's really verycheap.'

He said: 'One of the benefits of looking at the very big picture history isthat it provides a degree of comfort and confidence that when we are in acorrective mode, instead of being worried and panicking, we can becomfortable that we know what the rhythm is and can recognise therelationships. We know we'll get to the ultimate target of 8,800 or higherseveral years from now, and there are natural levels to re-enter themarket.'

His view is that Asian markets - Australia, Shanghai, Singapore and inparticular, Hong Kong - will move in synch upwards. 'Asia will benefit fromthe huge fundamental growth and prosperity sweeping across the region, that is not in any way harmed by the slowdown in the US. Asia now has enough internal demand and intra-Asian trade and infrastructure and consumer spending that it has a life of its own.'

He notes that historically, in past US recessions, the stock market hasanticipated a recovery and rises well before the recession ends. 'There isno impediment to have markets bottom in March, and have them recoversharply even if a recession technically continues in the next few months.'
His views on oil and gold are positive but not equally so. He expects oilto reach US$125 a barrel this year and to move sideways for two years.'We're still en route to US$125, but the big story is that once we reachUS$125, everyone will scream that we're on the way to US$200 and that's not what's going to happen. '

The catch, too, is that consumer prices will not be adjusted downwardsduring the consolidation period. 'The margins for products will be fabulousand will power the stock market to much higher levels because the reduction of the oil price will translate directly into the bottom line forcorporates in the industrial and financial sectors, telecom and blue chips.They'll all be lifted by prosperity.'

He is bullish on gold in the long term but expects some consolidation thisyear before it moves to US$1,030 an ounce in 2009, and eventually US$1,220 in 2010. But the most rapid rise is expected between 2011 and 2014 when he expects the price to hit US$2,600.

Another 2 Reports - Wilmar & China XLX

1. Wilmar by Nomura 28 Feb
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G91L625Q/Wilmar%2028%20Feb%2008%20Nomura.pdf.html

2. China XLX Initial Buy - Citi 27 Feb
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/8BU8T5XN/China%20XLX%20-%20Initial%20at%20Buy%20Citi.pdf.html

Two Reports on Noble Group

1. Noble Group by Nomura 27 Feb
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/PF9PJXMW/Noble%20Group%2027%20Feb%2008%20Nomura.pdf.html

2. Noble Group by ML 27 Feb
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/CYPR1CNE/Noble%20Group%2027%20Feb%2008%20ML.pdf.html

Any comment welcomed....

Research Report - First Resources & CS Asian Daily

Ok, I have find a file hosting site, and
I have upload 2 reports for testing.

1. First Resources Initial at Buy by Citi on 29 Feb
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/2HBDZ949/First%20Resources_Initiating%20at%20Buy%20Citi%20290208.pdf.html

2. CS Asian Daily 03 March
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/GUTOG1ZY/CS%20Asian%20Daily%20030308.pdf.html

The file hosting site that I using now is Uploading.com,
and they required downloader to wait up to 1 min
before able to start downloading, and they will
show up adverts which maybe offensive to
the ladies. (I saw one advert while doing testing)
So sorry for that.

After the 1 min wait, there is a Download button.
You can simply right-click at the button, and "save as"
to download the file to your PC.
Or if you want to view it online, just click on
the Download button.

I welcome any better suggestion to file hosting site
or whatsoever.

What is Foreign Brokerage/House Research Report?

OK.....What exactly is a Foreign Brokerage/House research report?

Any research report that is not from a local bank/brokerage
is considered "Foreign" to me, ie, you will not be able to
see research report by UOB KH, DBS Vickers OCBC, KE,
Phillips, Lim&Tan, DMG, Amfraser, CIMB-GK, SBI-E2,
Westcomb, SIAS.......

Instead you will see Credit Suisse (CS), Morgan Stanley (MS),
JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (Citi), Deutsche, Macquarie, UBS,
Nomura, BNP, Goldman Sachs (GS), Merrill Lynch (ML), ABN,
Standards & Poor (S&P), even recently Bank of China (BOC)
and HSBC also joining the wargon.

I hope you are fine with it.

First Post!

Hi fellower investor/trader,

This Blog is setup because I saw that a lot of
investors/traders do not receive Foreign brokerage/
research house report from their broker/remisier/dealer.
The brokers might choose to send the reports to their
big-time clients and ignore the small players based on
the commission he received.

The small retailer is not investing/trading on the same
level ground with the rest, so I hope to do something
to address this issue.

I received most foreign research reports, some later,
but I should have them by the end of the trading day
the latest. I will try to upload them to the file host
asap when I received them, but sometimes it is really
beyond my control.

I am a investor/trader like the rest of you, and I
do have my own sweet time when I am not trading
or investing for that particulat day, so the research
report may be posted late.

If there is any foreign house report that you heard
of, but I never post, please email me with the covered
company and the date.

I hope that all readers will exercise their own
judgement when trading/investing any stocks,
and I wish you Good Luck & HUAT in all
your trades.

Thank You!

Disclaimers:

The Research Report is for your general and private
reading, and it is not a recommendation for any stock investment/trading.
There are Risk and Reward involved in stock investment/trading.
Readers should exercise caution and judgement when
making investment/trading decision from the report.
Past performance is never a good indication of Future performance.
Readers should seek the advice of professional, adviser
for any stock decision.
I will not be held responsible for any loss incurred from
stock decision from reading the research report.
Caveat Emptor!