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Nicolas Darvas Box Trading Secrets

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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Rumours overheard at SGX Fruit Market

I was looking for some food to eat when I saw lots of foreigner
rumour-monger gossiping near the fruit stall, so I just write
what I heard from the red-hair.

Brother Lehman has so many things not happy with our
Property stocks and Reits that he reduce them to Neutral,
but I can sense it is more like a "Sell".
Many property counters all went for a Haircut,
City Dev, Bukit Sembawang, SC Global and Keppel Land all down to Equalweight.
Big Shot Capitaland TP become $5.30 only.
2 Reits, Capitacommercial and K-Reit also went for haircut.
Capita TP become $1.9, and K-Reit is only worth $1.7 to Bro Leh.

- Come on SG prop counters, if you want to drop, better drop more
as then I can pick you up cheaply. The best if can SG property also
drop as much.
But seriously, do you think it is really possible??!!
I doubt so.....do you?

Jap Nomura also opened mouth and said that they like CDL Hospitality,
and its TP increase to $1.48 with a Outperform rating,
but they don't like C&O Pharm, and terrible C&O TP become
a mere $0.26 with a Neutral Hold.

Mr JPM don't like Kep Land, and here is what you get: TP reduced to $3.5
MS said Cosco deserve only an Equalweight call, so better wake up!
Macquarie from down-under don't like tech heavyweight Venture, and
the TP down to $15.50

-Look like Venture may need to venture out more, and I believe
it should be looking for M&A target, since it is the about-right way
to go now.

Seem like I need to visit more market and supermarket around
the neighbourhood as there are so many rumours and gossips
flying all around, and if you alert, it may mean a big windfall in disguise.
Crossing my fingers.......and tying up my hairs, as they are be
so naughty and unmanageable sometimes.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Rumours overheard today and days ago from the SGX Fish market??!!

I went to the SGX Fish market and overheard many stall-owner
shouting at the top of their voice, and here is what I recalled:

GS took a look at our Property stocks and said that some need
to slim down and take a weight-loss.
GS viewed WingTai at a SELL, with TP at only $1.12
UOL was given a NEUTRAL with TP at $3.42
Capitaland was told to take a TP weight-cut to $5.20,
with City Development weight-cut to $9.10,
Keppel Land TP now at $4.66, and Allgreen not so green now with
TP become $0.90
- If the property stock price really drop to such prices, then I know
we will have a overnight buy queue, but come to think again,
maybe not many will dare to buy at a discounted price thinking
it is not cheap yet. Then you can keep on waiting, another rabbit will
get killed when it bang on the tree you are waiting beside again.
(If you know chinese idiom, you should know the meaning)

The rest of the rumours are quite messy, or maybe noisy:

For some downgrades:
CS told Saizen Reit to sim down and give it a Underperform rating,
and UBS reduced Tiong Woon TP by a big drop of about 50% to $0.58,
while BNP also follow suit and give Sim Lian a downgraded TP at $0.61

Ok, enough of bad rumours, now for some better rumours from
some Fishmongers:

Nomura said that Hyflux deserve a BUY rating now, MS also upgraded
STX to Overweight, and Macquarie also upgraded SGX to Outperform.
Lastly, HSBC upgraded CSM to Neutral. Incidentally in another rumour
overheard, HSBC's report Asian Equity Strategy report dated 22Aug said
that "Recession don't forever" and "Judging by history, the US recession
will be over before end-08"
- I don't know how true are all these rumours by all these fishmongers,
but I only know that fishes are still selling very well,
and I will visit the meat and fruit stall next time.
If you do spot a great discount bargain, do you dare to buy??

By the way, I still have not get a haircut yet, but who cares?

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